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the election day, we're going to bring the kudlow caucus together, they're the best minds in business and politics and tonight all cnbc contributors. our top story this evening, just two days until the first debate. romney is totally debate fit in my opinion. he is in fighting shach after demolishing ten opponents in 20 debates. mr. obama on the other hand, he's a bit doughy, i don't think he's in shape for this. and by the way, just minutes ago, north korea accused the united states of plotting to attack it as a steppingstone to dominate asia and has used the word nuclear war. well, how does president obama plan on handling these nut jobs? let me tell you that wednesday's debate, romney is going to broaden his message to include foreign policy. >>> plus we have a surprise increase in the ism manufacturing report. >>> plus again bernanke defends his debt plan. he's enabling the obama treasury to sell trillions of dollars in deficits. >>> hundreds of mexicans are involved in the fast and furious. this is a terrible story, hundreds of mexicans may be involved. should attorney general ho
three stories that happen to break before the election. a leftist new york attorneyy general looking to bash banks and that is as phony as a $3 bill. also a judge strikes down pennsylvania's voter id law and the obama administration is telling companies it is okay to disregard the law when it comes to handing out pink slips in advance to big budget cuts. all three happening before the election. mitt romney has finally put meat on the bones of his tax reform idea. he floated the idea of a $17,000 cap on tax reform reduction. >> you could say everyone is going to get up to a $17,000 deduction. you can fill that bucket if you will and higher income people might have a lower number. >> this is brand new stuff. we have howard dean former vermont governor and candidate. and let's look at this for a second. what do you think? a $17,000 cap on tax deductions for everybody as a way of being fair because the upper end would pay more. what do you think? >> i don't have a problem with the eidea of deductions. here you are. you guys are talking about the private sector all the time. so, i've been
numbers, jack, you can't touch those numbers before they're published. >> larry, look, this election is too important to have it hinge on one number. we got this number of 7.8 today, below where the president came in and we have assumptions. what i wanted to see and there's a real debate about this number. larry, the private sector household number, which is done by calling 50,000 people in the hundred plus million population for workers came in with a number of 873,000 people. that is the highest number since 1983, booming reagan years when you were there. >> i understand. i don't feel like defending bureaucrats left and right, it's not my favorite thing. but these guys, as the labor secretary said, they use surveys and models, it's only a 50 or 60,000 sample but that's nothing new. that's the way it's been for as long as the data is kept. you got 600,000 part-time workers. that was the biggest piece of it, an increase of 600,000 and self-employed went up 118,000 with some other factor, you get your 873,000. now, jack, here's my point. these numbers are subject to huge revisions, ok
% seasonal factors. election factors. >> demographics. don't forget, we have the baby boomer age which is actually a true factor. >> are you forecasting 5.9? >> probably not. >> i bet you we get 7.9, don't you think? >> today? >> eventually, yeah, but not today. >> is that a conspiracy theory? >> exactly what it is. we're at 8.1. >> is this obama metrics? a special gauge for the metrics? >> phil, you're talking hundreds of thousands of jobs where you finally get down to this net number and then you got all these other assumptions that go into the participation rate. and there must be 100 assumptionses th s thathat go i. >> you're sitting with a 30 year low. you could easily throw another couple hundred thousand discouraged workers in there and bring the number under eight. the metrics that we look at, in the post war era, no president's ever won re-election with it under 7.3. so there's no way we're getting down to 7.3 in the next month. >> it's following what we now call the great recession, whether that's accurate or not, and that makes it different this time because it's a lot of pe
, the democratic and republican. >> the center piece of the president's entire re-election campaign is attacking success. >> no more he said/he said. tonight, it's face to face. and a lot of it will focus on your money and your taxes. >> unlike president obama, i will not raise tax on the middle class of america. >> i want to reform the tax code so it's simple, fair. >> the candidates' opinions couldn't be more different and the stakes couldn't be higher. >> their philosophy is if you don't are health insurance, don't get sick. >> now is the moment we can do something. and with your help, we will do something. >> cnbc's coverage of the first presidential debate of the 2012 presidential election begins now. >> tonight some of the most influential figures in the nation on the economy join us here on cnbc. >> we've got representative and hopeful ron paul with us. texas, from texas. he is of course outspoken about the federal reserve policies. robert reich is here with us tonight. also with us grover norquist. the man behind the no new taxes pledge so many republicans made. and bob lutz a former top
of uncertainties on the table. yet, a little more clarity in what's going on in the campaign ahead of the election. michael, tell me about your allocation of capital in the face of the unknowns in terms of the economic data and the election. >> look, those that have been following my analysis know i was one of the first to call for the reflation trade back in january. we passed through the summer surprise. by the end of the fall, we're going to hit new all-time highs. i have to caution everybody here. the idea this is a romney rally is a bit of a misnomer. if it were based on u.s. domestic economic policy expectations, small cap stocks, which are dependent upon domestic revenue growth, are not showing that. they're not outperforming larger cap stocks. that's number one. number two, when you look at utilities and health care consumer staples, there's been tremendous bidding up of defensiveness in the face of this resilient move. we've actually positioned, in terms of mutual fund and separate accounts, back into bonds until this hesitation and corrective period ends. >> ron, you call this a romney r
. >> es seemed analyst that you are. can you tell me what barack obama's future vision is if he is re-elected? can you tell me from last night's debate what he is going to do? does anybody know? >> i actually thought that was the worst part of the debate. we have 23 million people unemployed, stop looking for work. what does he want to do? he wants to hire 100,000 teachers? first of all do we even know if we need 100,000 teachers? it's puny. it isn't big thinking. he wants to raise taxes. even good kinseyans know that's not the way. it's all small ball stuff that. worked for bill clinton because bill clinton had a raring economy so he could worry about school uniforms and talk about small stuff. where is i the president's big plan? >> where's mitt romney's small plan? >> you heard it last night. he has an entitlement reform plan, tax plan, corporate tax plan, energy plan, trade plan. the president doesn't. and i think it really showed. he imagined he was going to get through this race simply by disqualifying romney. they almost did it during the summer. they came this close. >> hold on a seco
.s. presidential debate. it really focused mostly on the economy. with a mnt to onth to go before election, both men had to prove to voters that they're the right man for the country. john harwood got a firsthand view of the debate and filed this report from denver. >> the first of three presidential debates here at the university of denver was a strong one for mitt romney. he came out very aggressively in confronting president obama on his record over the last four years, taking on on the president over his failure to reduce the budget deficit, over job creation, over obamacare, over the regulation of wall street and dodd-frank. had some success in pulling the election back from a choice election as president obama wants to be about their visions going forward into a referendum on president obama's record in the first four years. mitt romney looked very comfortable and pleased to be on the stage. he knows that he only has a few weeks left to go to reverse president obama's lead. president obama on the other hand did not always look so pleased to be challenged the way romney was challenging him.
you think might happen here. >> so we put a 60 to 70% probable that there is a deal after the election, probably in the lame duck session or shortly thereafter. we think -- and there's a great piece on pimco.com by my colleagues that details that. we think that will amount to about a 1 to 1.5% contraction in fiscal terms as opposed to the 4% contraction that we would get in fiscal terms from the fiscal cliff. it is possible, not probable, that we go over the cliff and it's possible we get a grand bargain. we put 60 to 70% that there will be some sort of compromise both parties can agree on. >> you don't think the chances of a grand bargain are not particularly great? that there's a long-term address to the whole issue of the fiscal deficit. >> unfortunately, not this time around. >> mohammed, earlier today, the founder of pimco tweeted out some investment recommendations, including buying spanish and italian bonds, government bonds, which sounds almost contrarian when we're so worried about what's going on with europe. what's the investment thesis behind that? >> it's simple. it is to
, that in the background of all these guys working on the deal already. soon after the election, our best guess is that there will be one. not too different from that story actually. >> qe-3 meanwhile, how does that play? does that continue to support lift asset prices? how do commodities get in the wash between slowing chinese growth and fed action? >> that's a good question. because i think it's a big one. i think we're not three weeks into qe-3 yet and the populous mind set of the markets is that we're done qe-3, let's move on to whatever's next. qe-3 is in my opinion very different from previous qes. the feds tip toe down a path of what i call nominal gdp targeting. we're tying it directly to real economic outcomes. so they're saying they're not going away and they've opened the door to it already without considering more. so it's a big thing and it's particularly helpful to the housing market. and it may have some consequences for short term inflation expectations. i think it's a big one and it's very good for asset prices particularly equities. >> we'll go to russia in a second. if you ca
of having a market that's at least respectable. >> we're also counting down to an election right now. you seem to view the prospect of a romney resurgence rather positive. why? >> i don't believe that another four years of what we've just seen is going to get us out of the woods. for that reason, i think it's time for a change. if i look at what obama is projecting, it will be higher taxes, higher debt, and it will bei be not much else other than more government spending. and that won't make the difference. so i think fiscal uncertainty has to be removed in order for the corporates to spend the huge amount of cash that they're holding. and at this point not investing. the fiscal -- i don't want to call it the fiscal cliff because that's not so important. the question is getting certainty into the situation for corporates to invest again. >> okay, good to have you on on. plenty more to come from you. but what do you think the jobs number will be? let us know. e-mail or tweet us. so just over an hour into the trading day here in europe. let's show you where we stand. just weighted to the up
that may carry us through the election time, but let me tell you something, with volatility the way it is and the vix being where it is, traders and investors are able to stay in this market, stay long in this market, but still buy cheap protection. so instead we really see a breakout of sorts in the fear index, in the volatility, i really think that the trend is still to the up side. >> so you think the trend is to the up side even though in the fourth quarter we have the election, the fiscal cliff, europe popping up again and all these concerns about china, you put them all on the side burner? >> until something absolutely comes to the forefront, kryes. in f. we g if we get through the election and the fiscal cliff is still on the docket and in peril, that's a different story. but until -- it's almost like the little boy that cried wolf. until something actually happens, these guys down here and really anybody in the marketplace can buy such cheap protection. there's no reason really not to stay in the market. maybe in some of the more defensive plays, but no reason not to stay on
either way depending upon the election? consider this first statement by the president about corporate jets. >> why wouldn't we eliminate tax breaks for corporate jets? my attitude is if you got a corporate jet, can you probably afford to pay full freight, not get a special break for it. >> now watch romney on defense. >> finally, military. the president's re-elected, you'll see dramatic cuts to our military. the secretary of defense said these would be even devastating. i will not cut our commitment to our military. >> if you're like me, you realize the general dynamics is at the fulcrum of both of these issues. if president obama is going back to that 2009 rhetoric, orders for gulf stream jets could be hammered. when you think of big defense programs that could be boosted by a romney presidency, go no further than general dynamics. you can see a real hit to earnings if the budget cuts become a reality. romney is unintentionally green lighting lockheed martin and grumman. now about half way into the debate romney gave us a fabulous short idea with this clip. >> you put $90 billion, li
numbers edition of "power lunch." 33. that is the number of days left until the election. the number of days mitt romney has to solidify the gains that he made last night. so how will the president and the markets respond? we'll be looking at that. >>> 767. that's the other number. google, all-time high in morning trade. see why a lawsuit may have given the stock its added pop and taking it up there to that airplane. that boeing number, 767. >>> and 1 billion. the number of monthly active users now using facebook. what's not to like? sue, the markets are liking something today. tell me what it is. >> they are, tyler. up across the board. we've been up since the opening bell. we'll get to why in just a second. >>> attorney general eric holder holding a news conference right now. it concerns major crackdown on medicare fraud. our senior correspondent scott cohn who covers that particular area in addition to many other things is joining us with the headlines. >> sue, it is something that we've been talking about a lot. this is amidst a three year crackdown on medicare and medicaid fraud
anything is going to happen until after the election. the tax cuts expiring, the spending programs expiring. a lot of people think this is going to lead to a recession in 20 13. how do you think this gets resol resolved and what is the impact? >> i weish we had better elections in this country. the reason we have bad government in this country is because we have bad elections. we don't talk about the important issue. one thing both sides could agree on actually today is the face of deficit reduction. they may go about it different ways but we need to bring the deficit down gradually. right now we're facing the fiscal cliff. nothing will get resolved before november, but i believe political forces after the november election will push both sides to a compromise. i do think we'll see a compromise. you know, the one tax that's got to come down next year is the uncertainty tax, the uncertainty about washington policy will be reduced over the next six months and be a positive for the u.s. economy. >> it's true, because companies have been in lockdown mode. they don't want to make decision with t
like a security breakdown of the worst kind and pre-election white house cover-up and i say it is time for ambassador susan rice to resign right now. joining us to talk about this, we have cnbc contributor jennifer rubin, author of the right turn blog and soon to be joichbed by military list jack jacobs. jen, let me start with you. is this a falsehood, a cover up, a lie? 24 hours, the white house knew, from their intelligence people that this was not about the video. this was not spontaneous, right? i'm using the language they are all using. >> yes. >> this was an al qaeda pre-planned terrorist plot and they put this woman susan rice out there to lie to the american public. >> and they put their own white house spokesperson out there to lie to the american public a number of days later. we are talking a week and a half after the initial pre-planned attack that's had jay carney, the president's spokesperson going in front of the cam vas this is only about a video, a movie. this is not america and our policies. that was a lie. by that time certainly people within the administration must
know all the different ways to win the election, the nasdaq might work for me for 30%. if that doesn't work, i'll back to the october lows. within way or another. it's hard enough to say if the market is going to be up or down at the beginning of the year. so to say 30 and if we get 20, i'm right. >> take a look at europe. you'll see they are looking at some positive movement even though there's a lot of concern about what's happening on the global economy and what's happening with europe in particular. germany today is up by better than 1%. 83 points for the dax. up 1.3% for france. and ftse up by close to 1%, as well. in asia, many of the markets there closed. in shanghai, something called national day, but they're closed for a week for national day, so they won't be open until october 8. in hong kong, markets -- >> they close for a week? >> for national day it's called. >> but it's not national week. >> national day. i didn't get that myself. >> shanghai? >> that's in shanghai. >> i'd close that market for it a week just on -- >> concerns? >> for what it's been doing, exactly. giv
in past fourth quarters. what about this year, especially in light of the elections, the unresolved fiscal cliff issue, all this quantitative easing money out there, the uncertainty in europe? let's look ahead in today's "closing bell" exchange. you know, carol, we've had this discussion this week about the games in the market don't seem to reflect the declines in the economy. there's sort of a disconnect. i think you agree with that, don't you? >> i absolutely agree with you, bill. i think all of september the market has been moved, not by what's going on here in the united states, but what's been going on in europe, which says to me two things. one, any bad news out of europe is going to send the market down. two, eventually people are going to have to pay attention to what's going on in the united states. i'm expecting we're heading into earnings season, i'm expecting anemic growth, and eventually that's going to have to play into the situation here. i mean, i know you don't fight the fed, but eventually we have to come back to what's going on in terms of fundamentals and stop focusing
on the board of cisco and ceo john chambers recently said whoever wins this election should govern like bill clinton as he spoke about clinton's effectiveness. what's going on from your view sitting on the board of cisco, having the experience that you've had at yahoo! tell me how you see the environment changes and where specifically you would expect growth to happen in technology in the next five years. >> well, i think technology in general -- probably the biggest challenge is not so much the social interactions but everybody's talking so much about data. data is very, very hard to mine correctly. so i think you're going to see a push back towards a lot of enterprise apps that really figure out how it get information to the companies so they can actually be more personalized for the user, but easy to say, a lot to do. >> and really quick, on what you're seeing out there, how tough is europe right now for technology? what are you seeing in terms of the global slow down? >> well, europe continues to baffle us in general in technology. it looks like it's getting softer, not stronger. you kno
debate of the 2012 election. let's get to courtney reagan. she's breaking down the stocks today that moved or could have been moved in one direction or another as a result of that. over to you. >> thank you, maria. mitt romney did need to revis revitalize his campaign. it looks like he did it last night. wall street took some notice today. coal stocks, one of the big winners in today's trading after romney made this comment to president obama. >> by the way, i like coal. i'm going to make sure we can continue to burn clean coal. people in the coal industry feel like it's getting crushed by your policies. i want to get america and north america energy independent so we can create those jobs. >> if you're bullish on coal, you're going to like this. take a look at how we performed today in the sector. arch coal up almost 8%. alpha natural up almost 7%. utility stocks also higher. wells fargo saying this is a sector that could do well under a romney administration. we have con ed up about 1%. on the flip side, hospital stocks didn't do so well. a romney win doesn't bode as well for
months he's been running on this tax plan. and now five weeks before the election he's saying that his big bold idea is never mind. and the fact is that if you are lowering the rates the way you describe, governor, then it is not possible to come up with enough deductions and loopholes that only affect high income individuals to avoid either raising the definite it or burdeneni ing the middle class. it's hamath. >> another hot topic, the deficit. >> it's now four years later, we still have trillion dollar defici deficits. >> $2.50 for every cut, we ask for a dollar of additional revenue paid for as i indicated earlier by asking those of us who have done very well in this country to contribute a little bit more to reduce the deficit. >> there were also some notable exchanges about jobs, health care, energy industry subsidies and regulation, all of these things got deeper than some people had been expecting. we'll talk about those topics with john harwood. but if you were watching, as they headed in a 70% -- >> down from 80 the day before. >> right now it's down to about 66% in trade obv
stronger. >>> all right. it's still the economy, even overseas. get this -- as the november election approaches, the economy remains by far the top issue on voters' minds. a recent rasmussen poll shows the economy as very important as to how they will cast their ballot. here is dave goldman and keith mcauliffe. dave goldman, we're going to have to switch this a little bit. bear with me. the new today coming out of iran is potentially very important. as you may know, their currency, the rial, has dropped 40% in the past week. black market currency traders and others are rioting in the streets. they had to bring in special riot police to do this. what's going on? is that country imploding over its money collapse? >> larry, i very much doubt it. the immediate effect of the shortage of foreign exchange is to concentrate power in the hands of the people who have the foreign exchange, namely the regime. no one else has the guns and money to oppose them. the immediate impact will be to convince ahmadinejad and his gang that they need to be all the more aggressive to develop nuclear weapons
right now. >>> 7.8% unemployment. did president obama just win next month's election? jack welch says hold your horses on that 7.8% number. he doesn't really believe it. an influential florida congressman agrees. we'll talk to that congressman live and ask him on what he bases his suspicions. >>> a place in the united states where gasoline has now become hard for drivers to find. you will find out why coming up on "power lunch." >>> meantime, let's go to sue at the new york stock exchange. sue? >> the markets have been up all day long. we're up about 60 points or so on the dow jones industrial average and the big reason of course is the number that we got this morning, falling unemployment. we are now below the 8% level for the first time in four years. the question is how did we get there? here to explain all of that, our senior economics reporter steve leisman. steve? >> sue, thanks very much. sue, this number is a product of simple math. but whether it's telling us about the real strength of the job market is something investors and the fed are going to have to think long and hard
before election day. welco welcome to "squawk on the street," futures reacting to the data, of course. 114,000, roughly in line, positive revisions to july and august. europe has plenty to react to, and angela earning innel saying she will visit greece next week. >> our road map starts off with the stunner. the jobless rate falling to a 44-month low falling below 8% for the first time since january '09? does this give the president the edge he might have lost in this week's debate? >> zynga's weaker player demand on farmville 2. shares of facebook feeling pain on that warning, as well. >> it is the one-year anniversary of the death of steve jobs. tim cook paying tribute to jobs on the company website saying the greatest gift jobs gave to the world is apple. >> added last month, but the big surprise is that unemployment rate falling to 7.8, dropping below 8% for the first time in three years. you six, unchanged? i think at 14.7, but the timing so critical ahead of the election has people not trusting the data. >> i trust in the data. i've trusted in the data for years. i don't think it
. >> this is a prime minister that come and has promised all sorts of things when he got elected. once that starts happening, how on earth do you control it from a crisis management pr perspective? >> if we could control it, we'd all be rich. what we tried to do, what i'm sure his advisers are trying to do is to keep him cool, keep him focused. they've made a lot of announcements in the last day with respect to the budget, with respect to pensions, with respect to civil service salaries. taxing the lottery winnings now. he mass a lot on his plate. the twi advice will be keep it cool and calm. >> here you sort of finally get a moment where he's captured on the world stage and he's smoking a cigar. that's part of the problem. and certainly not an intentional action, but came off that way. >> he probably needed the break and that's the way it comes over, isn't it, steve. >> what on earth have we come toe when we are criticizing leaders for smoking a cigar? didn't jfk smoke? of course clinton, a very famous cigar smoker and all it implications there. and what about winston churchill, without his cigar
ultimately you'll see it fall. i'd look to re-enter that trade after the u.s. election. that's when historically gold and gold equities do well. >> you're talking short term. what about the longer term possible inflationary implications of the very -- the move by the ned to keep rates as low as possible right now? isn't that considered inflationary? wouldn't that be good for gold, long term? >> yeah, absolutely. so if you're looking out 12 months i think you see gold pass $2,000, up, for sure. that's certainly going to happen. if you look at the fmoc meetings from the last meeting, they basely said they're talking off the inflation story. in fact, inflation news or the story would be great for the market. great for gold. >> in the meantime, both of you like stocks over gold. i'll let you -- i'll let you gold bugs out there draw your own conclusions on that one for now. maria? >> bill, thank you so much. >>> we're well off the highs on wall street as we approach this final stretch. i want to show you apple. part of the reason the market is coming off the highs is because of a decline
a lot of noise ahead of the election and asking for big concessions from the winning candidate. jack gerard is the ceo and president of the american petroleum institute. he joins me now from washington. good to see you, jack. thanks for joining us. >> good to see you. nice to be on. >> you know, when it comes to energy, i have to say we don't have an energy policy, unfortunately. what is the most pressing problem that needs to be fixed right now with america's energy situation in your view? >> well, i think there's three things any administration can do, whoever wins the election in the next few weeks. the first one is to approve the keystone exile pipeline. 20,000 new jobs brings more crude oil to the united states to be produced and used by americans. the second one is the administration could open up additional federal lands to bring more energy to the marketplace in job creating opportunities. the third one and perhaps equally important is to pull back on all the additional regulations that have been put throughout by the obama administration that are having a chilling effect on
'll get the government september jobs report. could be a game changer for the election. we'll get a hint of what may be to come. the employment report coming at 8:15 eastern time. poll forecasters say the economy likely added 155,000 private payroll jobs this month. we'll bring you the number and get you instant reaction from joel prakken. in corporate news, richard schultz is pressing forward with a possible $11 billion buyout of the retailer. schultz and at least four private equity firms have reportedly started examining the books of the economy. at the same time, he is said to be negotiating individually with the pe firms on the details of how his roughly 20% stake in the company would contribute and what role he might be playing after a buyout. and oracle ceo larry ellison says the company won't be making any major acquisitions during the next couple years. in an interview on "closing bell" yesterday, ellison said he is instead focused on growing organically. he also discussed the dividend. >> that's the decision of the oracle board of directors. i believe we'll gradually increase t
on what they want to do? and there's an election coming up. >> do we ever -- especially they start out lawyers. so you're suspect immediately. filing a civil fraud lawsuit. i thought we did this. >> they lost. prosecution lost that one. >> against jpmorgan over mortgage backed securities packed and sold by bear stearns. the action first to come out of a work group created by president obama to go after wrongdoing. jpmorgan bought bear stearns for $10 a share in march of '08 and we kind of thought they were doing the rest of us a favor. now they're like, thank you, sir, may i have another. the bank says it will contest the allegation. similar cases against other banks are likely to follow. scott cohn has been reading through the complaint as he always does. he'll have more at the top of the hour. and samsung will be allowed to sell its gallaxy it tablet in te united states. a court is removing a temporary sales ban on the twice. and samsung has filed a motion against apple saying that iphone 5 infringed on some of its patents. >> tit for tat. >> exactly. and boeing -- some words are for
the debate, we saw that dropping in terms of chances for obama to be re-elected. i'm wondering, do you buy into the notion that perhaps stock futures are up this morning because it is perceived that romney did well in this debate? >> stock futures were up 7 1/2, at the top of the debate when it looked like he was really winning. at 4:00 a.m., they went back to 3 1/2. then spain did a fairly reasonable auction. >> auction, yeah. >> ecb. this debate had people transfixed for at least 27 to 35 minutes. in the stock market. then we were to, as always, which will spain survive? >> as we said, tomorrow the data continues. we'll get a jobs number. earnings on tuesday with alcoa. the media loves a comeback. that's what they'll spit out today. things could be very different in 24 hours. >> and you did a great job, i'd have to tell you, that the horse race element of it has always intrigued me as someone in media, but if i were a betting person and there was a stock obama is supposed to in trade, then i would say, look. i'm not buying puts. >> you'd be neutral. you'd have a neutral rating? a market
, you know, the election could change so many things. it could make the fourth quarter great. it could make the fourth quarter less than great. one thing we know for sure, there's going to be a lot of volatility right about that time. when i think about high frequency trade and flash crash and how it affects the market on calm days, i shutter to think what kind of activity we're going to have if we get sweeps by either the left or the right on november 7th in the marketplace. >> that's a good point. jason, we're looking at the third quarter now ending. you come into work on the fourth quarter. what are you going to do? what's an your agenda? >> sure. we actually agree with a lot of what your other guests have said here. there's a lot of risk surrounding the fiscal cliff. our best case is it will be pushed on and not dealt with immediately, therefore the risk will be moved or pushed off to another day. in the meantime, there's a supportive economic backdrop. it's getting a little better. you need to take risk but not too much risk. what that means is don't buy just equities. that means
uncertainties. the u.s. elections, the fiscal cliff. you've got some back tracking in europe. and then you've got the leadership transition in china. so i think you're going to have that positive influence, maybe met with a little bit of resistance around some of the unserpt you'll see because of these i vents. we think the markets are higher 15 months from now. >> okay, so even if we do see this volatility you think 15 months from now, are you going to be in a better position? what about that, peter, we've been talking today that the expectations call for a contraction in third quarter earnings. going to see a negative performance from the third quarter, these are the expectations, anyway, to bounce back in the fourth quarter. the market -- really haven't changed very much. >> yes, maria. i think the market is ahead of itself. as the prior speaker said, there's a lot of uncertainty out there. markets have been very strong this year. so some giveback in the fourth quarter is not unexpected by me. i kind of welcome it, because we're stock pickers and that will give us a chance to find some
, election, fiscal issues are certainly important. what's important to me from an equity perspective is seeing taxation on equity returns kept low. i really don't want to see the dividend or capital gains rate go any higher than 25%. i'd like to see these two rates stay equal to each other. that's important to us. >> is there a cost to the market associated with that changing n your view? >> yeah, if the dividend rate goes up to the marginal income tax rate, this market will give back some of the rally and it will limit the upside for next year. >> is there a point at which you see obama in the polls and you say actually now i believe that we are going to get the tax hikes and the market should fall? there must be a watershed quite soon as we head towards particularly what happens in the house and the senate. >> our focus has been on the senate. we think that's what's going to mostly influence the outcome. i hope there's appetite to see the rates low. i don't see a benefit from raising them. i would call a coin toss on the senate outcome. but wiser minds will see the wisdom of helpin
elections coming up in the regions, too, they could be almost in terms of the requirements from the ecb breaking against that before the first review. so what does the ecb do in terms of bond purchases given that they're meant to suspend them? does it mean we have to see additional reform measureses? the message from brussels has already been that they can't ask more from them from 2012, but it's another open question. now, bringing it back to the banking sector as you mentioned, 60 billion euros for these banks in an adverse scenario. spaniards believe that they can get the banks to raise 20 billion euros themselves and banco has kicked off with a 2.5 billion euro capital raise. that leaves 40 billion to come from the 100 billion that's been allotted. the other thing that we need to find out is what will happen with the bad bank and we're expecting details on that. just what is the value of as sets that will transfer into that. so information on that this week, plenty to come from spain. back to you guys how, hoe. >> and it's just me unfortunately. i should have said earlier, kelly has
. >> only game in town. central bank bull market. >> goes back and looks at every presidential election year i think going back to '28. s&p the first half peak is normally april 6th. this time it was april 2nd. second half peak is normally september 7th. this year september 14th. the pattern and it usually comes with a nice fourth quarter, they say obviously history doesn't always run exactly but pay attention to some of these patterns. it's shaping up to be historically a recognizable year. >> i thought it was interesting. the one difference is that, oh, boy. i hate to say this because it is not meant to be nonpatriotic but we are not as important to our equity markets as we were. we are -- we see our markets, we were doing fine. it's been a long time since this period obviously but where i look at the european market i see spain down and i see a seller market. we're not charging and i don't even want to for a moment pretend we are. >> speaking of which european markets are moving a little bit lower. we'll wait for the results of spain's bank stress test due out in about three hours from no
showing obama ahead by two about a 72% probability of being re-elected. our chief washington correspondent john harwood live at the event site in denver. john, what's the objective for romney tonight? what does he need to do? >> mitt romney's got a very big task. he's got to do a couple things at the same time. first he's got to find a way to dent the argument that bill clinton and barack obama made at the democratic convention about how president obama's done as well as anyone could do in turning the economy around the last four years. secondly, he's got to make a positive case with passion, with credibility for his own economic plans, for how he's going to make life better for 100% of americans. third, he's going to have to deal with that 47% video which has really taken a toll on his campaign. he's got to do all those things at the same time. we've seen the history of debates, tyler. it is not easy to fundamentally turn a race around but we have seen from our nbc/"wall street journal" poll that he's within three points nationally. still possible for him to win. got get going down. >> am
of months. with the election, with the fiscal cliff coming up. i think that now is a good time to take profits for the year. 14.50 is our price target for the year end. next year i have to say i'm probably skewed to be more negative. but there's a couple of data points that i can't ignore. one of which is sentiment. we track wall street sentiment. and we found that it is actually at the lowest levels we've ever seen since we began tracking this measure back in 1985. >> wow. so that's the contrary indicator. >> exactly. there's a lot of hatred for equities. a lot of negative news priced into the equity market at this point. i think that it's more likely to surprise on the up side rather than the down side. there's a lot to be negative about at this point. i think there's the fiscal cliff, there's europe, there's china. so a lot of the headlines that we see are fairly negative. but the fact that everyone is at a point where they are underweighting equities relative to bonds more than they ever have tells me equities could actually surprise to the up side. >> it doesn't sound like you are
that after this election, that the two parties will pull together and do what's right for this country. though having said that, despite all the infighting and bickering, i think it does look like america is back on the right track. i think america is through the worst now. hopefully the next four years will be a lot better than the last four years. >> i want to ask but your book, the title is "richard branson, like a virgin, secret these don't teach you at business school." what is the number one secret they don't teach you at business school that has been responsible for your success, do you think? >> i suspect the number one see jet they don't say, maybe it is better no to the go to business school it is better to just get out there and learn to run a business by actually trying to run a business. >> which you did very early on in life? >> yeah. and i think if you look at it a lot of the successful business people, you know, left school quite early on and just went and rolled up their sleeves and gave it a go and you just learn, you know, so much by getting in the jungle and survivi
retaining wall. those okay with you? >>> hey there, booyah and we're going to elect jim cramer for president. >>> this year the choice is yours. vote cramer/bull 2012. they are both -- cramer/bull 2012. fighting for us, for our children, for america. and for our bull fighting worldwide because it's cool. e i? you'd spot movement, gather intelligence with minimal collateral damage. but rather than neutralizing enemies in their sleep, you'd be targeting stocks to trade. well, that's what trade architect's heat maps do. they make you a trading assassin. trade architect. td ameritrade's empowering web-based trading platform. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up to $600 when you open an account. customer erin swensonfree bought so, i'm happy. today. sales go up... i'm happy. it went out today... i'm happy. what if she's not home? (together) she won't be happy. use ups! she can get a text alert, reroute... even reschedule her package. it's ups my choice. are you happy? i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. happy. happy. happy. happy. (together) happy. i love lo
like fiscal retaining wall. those okay with you? >>> hey there, booyah and we're going to elect jim cramer for president. >>> this november the choice is yours. vote cramer/bull 2012. he'll help you secure your future. the bull is an experienced politician who loves his country. cramer/bull 2012. fighting for us, for our children, for america. and for our bull fighting worldwide. ddd#1 >>> time for some housekeeping. on tuesday chris in new york asked about corrections corp of america. symbol cxw. largest owner of privatized prisons in the country. maximum to minute security prisons. i like they pay a .2% yield. they operate more than 65 prisons. more than 90,000 beds in 19 states. sadly the prison market here in the united states is enormous, about $74 billion. i think corrections corp is a pretty long runway for growth. that's considering right now only about 10% of the prison population is outsourced. the stock had a massive run. trading at 20 times last year's earnings, 10% growth rate which would ordinarily make it too pricey for me end of story. the thing is corrections corp h
of any debate. but i stand for higher stock prices for all. if you elect me,ly put through my plan to switch to clean burning natural gases, lower taxes on dividend, educate the masses on money, clean up the skies, rebuild our infrastructure and reappoint bernanke to give liberty, justice and higher stock prices for all. that's a platform i could vote for, if only obama or romney would embrace it. lawrence in texas, lawrence? >> caller: jim, how are you doing? i have a question for you today regarding rpm. the earning report came out today. long or short in the stock? >> short that, you have to short that plentiful dividend. i never recommend that idea. you don't want to do that, boss. i was going to recommend this and then i felt that the upside was very, very limited. good numbers. i should have done it. i really did kick myself at this one. i thought if i recommended it, the stock would go up too much. ron in louisiana. ron? >> caller: jim. i've got to thank you. you're the best. i've been investing for 55 years and didn't make money until the last five. guess why? jim cramer. >
there, booyah and we're going to elect jim cramer for president. >>> this year the choice is yours. vote cramer/bull 2012. cramer/bull 2012. fighting for us, for our children, for america. and for outlawing bull fighting , gather intelligence with minimal collateral damage. but rather than neutralizing enemies in their sleep, you'd be targeting stocks to trade. well, that's what trade architect's heat maps do. they make you a trading assassin. trade architect. td ameritrade's empowering web-based trading platform. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up to $600 when you open an account. [ male announcer ] isn't always the one you plan to take. whoa, check it out. hey baby goat... no that's not yours... [ hikers whispering ] ...that's not yours. [ goat bleats ] na, na, na -- no! [ male announcer ] now you can take a photo right from video, so you'll never miss the perfect shot. [ hikers laughing, commenting ] at&t introduces the htc one x. now $99.99. rethink possible. hey, it's sandra -- from accounting. peter. i can see that you're busy... but you were gonna help us cru
issues in terms of the request from spain to october 21st is when there are regional elections and sometimes probably after that there will be a request from spain for some sort of a bailout. >> i always find the way the market looks at these things is rather extraordinary. you have the most important banks and what's happening is it's saying, look, we welcome it and the stock goes higher. bbva, another player, when you have bailouts, the stock is supposed to go lower. think about our country when bank of america decided to take the money. then they had to go to an equity law firm. this is encouraging to me. i would think this actual bailout is one that says, we are now past, the pig is much further along. you don't want a python swallowing a pig, but it's going to follow it when it is finished. >> words to live by, jim. words to live by. >> i think about that often, actually. >> we just listened to an incredible hour of television on "squawk box" with zell talking about what he's seen in the economy, talking more about corporate i.t. upgrade cycles. here's what zell said not t
together along with the chronological orders as we get closer and closer to the election. that hawill have a big impact wh rates and fiscal cliff issues. when it comes to the fed, all the moves were in anticipation. if you go back and look at the august meeting and how the s&p acted, the dow acted, the weakness in the dollar index, and maybe most of all the rally in mortgages, which could have been the most telegraphed easy trade for the big dogs in the fixed income fund market of all time. but today's adp might have been better, sequentially lower. it doesn't make a different to employment. i have yet to see any research that says qe anything does. >> all right. thank you, all. good to see you. thanks for your thoughts today. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> all right. we're in the final stretch. we have a mixed market for the most part. >> i don't care what you got planned for the afternoon. stick around. we are just getting started on this very busy wednesday edition of the "closing bell." watch. >>> coming up, downloading a dividend? what will apple do with its huge war chest and potent
things are not moving in the right direction. >> they want to slow the economy before the election. if you don't believe that, then i have a bridge i want to sell you in brooklyn. that is what the republican obstructionists in congress have been about. you can create excluses for thee guys if you want, but the fact of the matter is every single jobs bill the republicans in congress have voted against. >> carly, what do you say to that? >> wow. you know, first of all, i thought the democrats couldn't get much lower when harry reid took to the floor of the u.s. senate and accused governor romney of not paying taxes for ten years. last week, nancy pelosi implied that there was no security at the embassy in libya was because the republicans had employed cuts in that area. they understand the economy is not helpful to them. i would remind the governor that the republican congress has spent many, many job creating bills to the democratically controlled senate and harry reid has refused to let them get to voted on. >> governor romney, the consensus is he came out ahead in the debates. do
st, after the elections. i think that's generally the market's consensus. anything before then would be a surprise. however, considering the spain has to make, i think they will wait until october 21st. >> willy, thank you. >> thank you. >> for more currency trades, catch "money in motion" on cnbc at 5:30 p.m. and go to currency class. >> the euro will bounce substantially on that. >> i would agree with him in terms of the trader perspective in believing that it's a key date. >> it's a huge event risk. >> we'll see. >>> ipad mini rumors beginning in ash na. >> first, before david faber talks to kyle bass, at the economic summit in texas, someone who knows how important debates can be, texas governor and former gop candidate rick perry will join us on cnbc. up. a short word that's a tall order. up your game. up the ante. and if you stumble, you get back up. up isn't easy, and we ought to know. we're in the business of up. everyday delta flies a quarter of million people while investing billions improving everything from booking to baggage claim. we're raising the bar on flying and tom
, it is a case of when, not if. we start to look back at potentially october 21st, the elections again. meeting the german prime minister, they are pointing out this is a regular meeting. i think irrespective of this bailout there's going to be plenty to discuss there. he's also just behind me, just went into the meeting this morning, he's presenting the details of the stress test to congress here. as you mentioned, moody's came out this week and said their adverse scenario could see actually the requirements for these banks needing to double the levels in that stress test, so again, perhaps, failing to draw a line in the crisis in the banking sector, too. so plenty of work for prime minister rajoy to do. back to you. >> we know there's been a number of attempts by the spanish government to try and bring integrity to the banking system, so it seems as though there's an enormous onus now on the spanish government to try and sell this at home. >> absolutely. they've made this point that $20 billion suggested in that oliver wineman report can be issued by the banks. said they were going to do a ca
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